Thousands of homeowners and buyers have spent the past two years hoping for some relief from high mortgage rates.
Now I think they could be about to get more of it.
Barclays and NatWest have already made significant cuts across parts of their mortgage ranges, and from where I'm sitting, the question is no longer whether rates are moving down.
The question is how many other lenders can afford not to follow.
Mortgage lending is an intensely competitive market so when one or two major players make their move, everyone else pays attention.
Right now, there are several reasons why I believe we could see another wave of rate reductions before the end of June.
1. The cost of funding mortgages has fallen sharply
This is the biggest reason, even though most borrowers never hear about it.
Mortgage pricing is heavily influenced by swap rates, which are effectively the cost lenders pay to fund fixed-rate mortgages.
Over the past month, two-year swap rates have fallen by almost 20 basis points, while five-year swaps have dropped by around 15 basis points.
That may not sound dramatic, but in mortgage pricing terms it matters.
When funding costs fall, lenders have more room to lower rates while protecting their margins.
Barclays and NatWest have already acted.
I expect other lenders will now be looking closely at whether they need to do the same.
Mortgages are set to fall
| GETTY2. No lender wants to disappear from brokers' radar
One reality of the mortgage market is that visibility matters.
When Barclays launched a two-year fixed rate at 4.39 per cent, it immediately put itself among the most competitive deals available.
That means brokers are seeing it near the top of sourcing systems when they're searching for products for clients.The danger for rival lenders is simple.
If your rates sit significantly above the market, fewer brokers recommend you and fewer applications arrive.
In my experience, lenders hate becoming invisible.
No lender wants to spend the summer watching business flow elsewhere because its rates are no longer competitive.
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Summer is one of the busiest times of the year in the mortgage market
| GETTY3. Summer is one of the busiest periods of the year
Timing matters. The housing market typically becomes more active during the summer months as buyers look to move before the autumn and homeowners review their finances.
Lenders know this. The next few weeks are a valuable opportunity to attract new business, particularly remortgage customers who are actively shopping around for a better deal.
When demand rises, competition tends to increase alongside it.
That's one of the reasons I think we're likely to see more lenders sharpening their pricing before the month is out.
4. The battle for remortgage customers is intensifying
One of the clearest signs of competition is what we're seeing in the remortgage market.
NatWest recently reduced selected tracker remortgage rates by more than half a percentage point.
That's not a token reduction. It's a lender making a statement.
Remortgage customers are highly valuable because they're already proven borrowers who are actively looking for a new deal.
Historically, when a major lender becomes aggressive in this space, rivals tend to respond quickly.
Very few lenders are willing to sit back while competitors win market share.
5. Borrowers with smaller deposits are becoming a bigger focus
Some of the most interesting changes are happening higher up the loan-to-value scale.
For borrowers with five or 10 per cent deposits, mortgage rates have remained stubbornly expensive for much of the past two years.
That's made affordability a major challenge for many first-time buyers.
Recent reductions from lenders including Barclays and NatWest suggest that competition is now increasing in these sectors too.
Even modest cuts can reduce monthly payments and improve affordability calculations.
And when major high-street lenders move in these areas, smaller lenders often follow because it's exactly the business they want to attract.
My outlook for the mortgage market
Overall, I believe the direction of travel remains down. Funding costs have eased, competition is increasing and lenders are keen to win business.
That's why I wouldn't be surprised to see another round of reductions before the end of June.But there's an important warning for borrowers.
Just because rates may fall further doesn't mean waiting is always the right decision.Mortgage products can disappear overnight.
Lenders regularly withdraw deals without notice, and market conditions can change quickly.
My advice is straightforward.
If you find a mortgage that suits your circumstances, meets affordability requirements and offers a competitive rate, don't assume a better deal will definitely arrive tomorrow.
The best mortgage isn't always the cheapest headline rate.It's the one that gets you where you want to be, at a cost you can comfortably afford.