Thousands of offshore energy workers could lose their jobs over the next decade unless investment in renewable energy accelerates, a new report has warned.
Up to 18,000 jobs are at risk by 2035, with researchers warning that a critical window to protect workers, skills and supply chains is rapidly closing.
The warning comes from Robert Gordon University's Energy Transition Institute, which says the offshore energy sector has entered a "make-or-break" period as it shifts from oil and gas towards renewable energy.
Its Delivering Positive Energy report found that unless green energy investment increases significantly, the industry could suffer major job losses as traditional oil and gas roles decline faster than new renewable opportunities are created.
Professor Paul de Leeuw, director of the institute, said the next five years will be crucial.
He warned that the sector is entering what researchers describe as a "Goldilocks zone" - a narrow period during which falling employment in fossil fuels must be matched by growing demand in offshore renewables.
"The Goldilocks zone is real and the window is closing. Once that skilled workforce disperses, it does not come back," he said.
Professor de Leeuw warned that experienced workers could leave the industry permanently if comparable jobs in renewables fail to emerge quickly enough.
If that happens, the sector risks losing valuable expertise and supply chain capacity, potentially leaving it short of workers when large offshore wind projects are ready to move forward.
The report highlights the scale of what is at stake. More than 42,000 people currently work in offshore energy locally, accounting for nearly one in six jobs in the region.
The area is home to around one-third of the UK's 115,000 offshore oil and gas jobs and roughly a quarter of the country's 154,000 offshore energy roles.
Douglas Lumsden, the Scottish Conservative MP for Aberdeen South, said the report's findings "could not be clearer" and urged the Government to "get the UK drilling again before it's too late".
He warned that the prospect of a further 18,000 offshore jobs being lost by 2035 exposed what he described as the "catastrophic consequences" of Labour and SNP policies towards the oil and gas sector.
Entire oil rigs were advertised in the North Sea Atlas trade publication | THE NORTH SEA ATLASMr Lumsden argued that "it's insanity to think renewables alone can provide enough jobs and can satisfy our energy needs", adding that scaling back North Sea production amounted to an act of "national self-harm and economic sabotage".
He called on both the UK and Scottish governments to back North Sea oil and gas and deliver energy strategies that safeguard jobs.
Despite the warning, researchers said the industry remains well placed to make the transition successfully.
Professor de Leeuw said the region already has the workforce, infrastructure and geographical advantages needed to become a major renewable energy hub, but warned that investment and policy support must now follow.
"What it needs now is the investment, policy alignment, and co-ordination to match," he added.
However, the report projects this balance could shift dramatically, with green energy potentially comprising between 55 and 70 per cent of jobs by 2035.
Mr Borthwick criticised current policy direction
| PACrucially, over 90 per cent of existing workforce skills transfer directly to renewable sectors, requiring only brief upskilling rather than complete retraining.
"That is not a marginal advantage. It is a structural head start that few other regions in the UK or Europe can match," Professor de Leeuw stated.
Russell Borthwick, chief executive of Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce, argued the report's findings carry significance well beyond the north-east, touching on fundamental questions of national energy security, economic resilience and global competitiveness.
"While the impact is being felt most acutely here, getting this wrong will have dire consequences across many parts of Scotland and the UK," he said.
Mr Borthwick criticised current policy direction, stating: "What is happening is not an inevitable consequence of geology. It is the result of policy choices being driven by ideology rather than reality."
He pointed to nations including New Zealand, the Netherlands and Canada as examples of countries reassessing their approach to domestic energy production.
The British job market grows harder to navigate | GETTYThe chamber chief maintained the region possesses world-class subsea expertise, decades of offshore experience and outstanding infrastructure to lead Britain's energy future.
UK energy minister Michael Shanks insisted the government was not abandoning North Sea oil and gas while simultaneously building future employment opportunities.
"There are already thousands of jobs in renewable energy and upgrading the grid across Scotland, and, as this report sets out, oil and gas workers are in prime position to take up these opportunities," he said.
Mr Shanks acknowledged past failures, describing the previous decade as "a broken transition with a workforce falling by a third" without adequate investment in alternatives.
Scottish energy minister Stephen Gethins highlighted £17million in the latest Just Transition Fund round, bringing total regional investment since 2022 to over £85million across 28 projects.
However, Mr Gethins criticised the energy profits levy for accelerating North Sea decline before renewables can adequately replace lost capacity.