Britain's pub industry could lose around 2,300 venues by 2029-30 without major reforms, according to the British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA).
The trade body warned that thousands of establishments remain at risk despite recent interventions from Labour, including a 15 per cent reduction in rates this year and a freeze due to begin in 2027.
Pubs have continued to close at an alarming pace, with two venues shutting every day since January 2026, according to industry figures.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research echoes these concerns, arguing that existing measures merely postpone rather than prevent widespread closures.
Labour's support package has delivered £73.6million in savings for the sector during 2026-27, according to the BBPA's analysis.
Pub-specific business rates introduced in January could save individual establishments around £2,000 each, reducing the average bill to £11,459.
The two-year freeze beginning in 2027-28 is projected to provide a further £273million in relief to the sector.
However, industry leaders argue the underlying problem remains unresolved
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Unlike most commercial premises, where business rates are calculated using potential rental income, pubs are assessed according to their takings.
The BBPA said this creates a situation in which successful establishments face significantly higher rates bills, while the Treasury's planned review of valuation methods does not guarantee meaningful reform.
The organisation warned that without changes to the methodology used to assess pubs, the sector could face the same challenges again within a few years.
Emma McClarkin, chief executive of the BBPA, said: "While these measures have reduced the immediate burden, they do not solve the long-term problem, which traps pubs in a cycle of uncertainty and shocking increases.
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Over 2,000 pubs could shut by 2030 unless Government reforms business rates, industry warns
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"Getting the methodology right is not simply an administrative exercise.
"It will have real-world consequences for thousands of pubs, workers, and the communities they serve."
Nick Mackenzie, chief executive of Greene King, which operates a portfolio of 2,600 pubs, restaurants and hotels, also called for changes to the system.
Mr Mackenzie said: "The upcoming Treasury review must fix the fundamental unfairness of the business rates system, which disproportionately penalises pubs.
"Until these meaningful changes are introduced, pubs across the country will continue to be stifled by regulatory costs and less able to invest and grow."
The Treasury defended its support for the hospitality industry and highlighted measures designed to help businesses.
A spokesman said: "We have the right economic plan we're backing hospitality by cutting VAT on family attractions and kids' meals this summer, reforming business rates, extending World Cup opening hours, and taking action on the cost of living to boost the sector."
Any changes to the way pub business rates are calculated are expected to be confirmed and implemented by 2029.
The BBPA said that without substantive reform to the valuation methodology, the current trajectory could result in around 2,300 pubs disappearing by the end of the decade, which Ms McClarkin described as "a devastating blow to communities, jobs and local economies".