Andy Burnham can't beat Reform by going soft on immigration. His pick for Chancellor could be his undoing

Andy Burnham must be more ‘Blue Labour’ when it comes to immigration and asylum, writes the social integration expert

With newly-elected Makerfield MP and former Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham on the verge of being crowned as Labour leader and subsequently becoming the UK’s new Prime Minister, there could be a repositioning of big hitters on the front benches of Government. Will one of those moved be current Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood?

It appears that Mahmood, who has arguably been the strongest performer in Cabinet since Labour returned to power in July 2024, leads the race to replace Rachel Reeves as Chancellor of the Exchequer – with the likes of Energy Secretary Ed Miliband in the running but trailing behind her.

While both are great offices of State, moving from Home Secretary to the position of Chancellor is generally considered to be a move to a more prestigious role – the second-highest ranking in Government, after being prime minister. However, this gives rise to an important question: will PM-in-waiting Andy Burnham appoint a successor to Mahmood at the Home Office who will continue with her immigration and asylum reforms?

Last week, nearly 80 Labour MPs signed a private letter which encouraged Burnham to retreat from Mahmood’s radical shake-up of the immigration and asylum system.

The internal row is primarily centred on her plans to change the ‘right to remain’ for migrants – increasing the standard time taken to qualify for permanent residency from five to between 10 and 15 years.

Under Mahmood's restrictionist proposals, this would apply to so-called ‘Boriswave’ migrants who arrived from 2021 - an estimated 1.6 million of whom would otherwise be expected to apply for indefinite leave to remain (ILR) from this year.

Despite such concerns, the incoming prime minister supported the Immigration and Asylum Bill at its second reading in the House of Commons on Monday evening. The legislation passed by 264 votes to 90.

While there has been talk of exempting the 1.6 million ‘Boriswave’ migrants from Mahmood’s so-called immigration crackdown, any sense of Burnham retreating from them would not go down well with much of Labour’s traditional working-class core vote.

Labour's difficult task of rebuilding relations with its traditional core vote cannot simply be achieved through local economic regeneration and an active industrial policy – it also has to involve shifting the UK towards an immigration system based on quantity and quality control, as well as an asylum system which has national security and public safety at its heart.

Burnham, as an MP, now represents a part of the country where Reform is dominant in terms of local politics.

He may have won the recent parliamentary by-election by a comfortable margin, but there is an anti-establishment cultural conservatism among his constituents that he would be wise to be respectful of – considering these voters have essentially propelled him to No10.

This is precisely why, despite speaking in relatively liberal terms in the past over matters of multiculturalism and immigration, Burnham has recently emphasised enforcement, border control and the importance of restoring public confidence when it comes to migration and refugee policy.

If Burnham wants to push back on Reform UK’s parking of its turquoise tanks on Labour’s red lawns, he must make sure that Mahmood’s immigration and asylum reforms are an integral part of a wider agenda to reinstill a sense of us being a national democratic community – even if he decides to make the current Home Secretary, his Chancellor.

In the interests of the country of large and maintaining a strong working relationship with Mahmood at the heart of Government, Burnham must be more ‘Blue Labour’ when it comes to immigration and asylum.