While Britain argues over small boats, Russia is watching our coastline

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Ex-army officer Lt Col Stuart Crawford writes about Vladimir Putin's game of watching, mapping and testing Britain's coastline

Are the Russians hiding in plain sight, waiting for their moment?

Britain doesn't have enough warships. We know it. More importantly, Russia knows it.

Moscow's naval activity around Britain has intensified dramatically.

The Government says the number of Russian vessels threatening UK waters has increased by 30 per cent in two years.

The Royal Navy has at times maintained an almost continuous watch on Russian ships operating around our coastline.

Are the Russians simply watching us? Or are they hiding in plain sight, learning exactly how vulnerable Britain has become?

Russian frigates, submarines and intelligence ships are repeatedly appearing around Britain.

The Royal Navy says it maintained an unbroken watch for nearly three months on Russian frigates and their accompanying vessels earlier this year.

Russia's secretive Main Directorate for Deep Sea Research, known as GUGI, operates specialist submarines and vessels designed to survey critical underwater infrastructure in peacetime.

The Government says this is infrastructure that Russia could attack in a conflict.

More than 99 per cent of Britain's international data traffic travels through subsea cables.

The Government says around £1.4trillion of daily UK transactions rely on this infrastructure.

Earlier this year, Britain exposed a month-long Russian operation involving an Akula-class attack submarine and specialist GUGI units operating around critical Atlantic infrastructure.

HMS St Albans, RAF P-8 Poseidons, Merlin helicopters and allied forces tracked the Russians around the clock until they withdrew. British aircraft flew more than 450 hours during the operation.

And Russia's notorious intelligence vessel has previously operated close to UK waters.

During one operation, lasers were directed at British pilots monitoring the ship. The Ministry of Defence describes Yantar as one of the key Russian vessels used to threaten Britain and its allies.

The Royal Navy says Russian warships are increasingly transiting the English Channel.

In April, there wasn't a single day when the Admiral Grigorovich, her supporting vessels, or the ships she was escorting went unmonitored by British air or sea power.

Which ship arrives? How quickly? What aircraft support it? How long can Britain maintain surveillance?

What happens when Russian vessels appear simultaneously in different places? Every encounter potentially teaches Moscow something.

And Britain is being stretched. Frigates aren't only needed to shadow Russian surface ships.

They're required to hunt submarines, protect the nuclear deterrent, watch critical infrastructure and fulfil Nato commitments. Patrol vessels and other lightly armed ships are increasingly being used for surveillance duties too.

Now throw small boats into the equation. Politicians are simultaneously arguing that the Royal Navy should become more involved in stopping migrant crossings. But ships cannot be in two places at once.

There is no evidence to say the small boat crisis has emboldened Moscow.

But Russia doesn't need to care about Britain's immigration debate.

It only needs to observe the consequences. A country politically consumed by controlling its own Channel, while struggling to maintain enough warships to police Russian activity in the same waters, is something Moscow will notice.

And Russia can count. It knows how many frigates and destroyers Britain possesses.

It knows how many are deployed elsewhere. Every time Britain sends a patrol vessel to watch a heavily armed Russian warship, Moscow can make its own assessment of the balance of power.

We should also remember that our reinforcements aren't arriving tomorrow. Britain's new Type 31 frigates, and the planned generation of crewed and uncrewed vessels, should eventually provide greater capacity. But Russia is operating off our coastline now.

Perhaps none of this means Putin is preparing to attack Britain. But defence isn't about assuming your potential enemy has peaceful intentions.

Russia is surveying our seabed, monitoring our responses, escorting vessels through the Channel, and deploying intelligence ships and submarines around our coastline. In doing so, it is forcing the Royal Navy and RAF into continuous surveillance operations.

Meanwhile, Britain is asking an increasingly small Navy to do an increasingly long list of jobs.

Protect the deterrent. Hunt submarines. Guard cables. Shadow Russian warships. Meet Nato commitments. Deploy around the world.

Has Britain's migrant crisis encouraged Russia? We cannot know. But Moscow can certainly see the distraction.

Perhaps the most disturbing possibility isn't that Russian forces are somewhere beyond the horizon, preparing to appear without warning.

They're already here. Watching. Mapping. Testing. Hiding in plain sight.