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Sir John Curtice has said 'the numbers are not there' for the Prime Minister to guarantee a majority

Britain's leading polling guru has warned Labour against calling an early election because Reform UK could still become the biggest party in Parliament.

Sir John Curtice has said "the numbers are not there" for Andy Burnham to guarantee a Labour majority, despite Nigel Farage's party taking a hit in the polls following a summer of scandals.

While Labour has undoubtably seen its support in the polls surge since Mr Burnham succeeded Sir Keir Starmer, Reform UK could still become the largest party in the Commons, Sir John said.

The polling guru suggested because Reform UK supporters are "geographically evenly spread", it could work to the party's advantage.

Sir John told The Independent: "At the moment, the polls are saying that the Labour Party would lose its majority and that indeed one of the two post-Burnham bounce mega-poll MRPs actually has Reform with more seats than Labour.

"One of the things you have to remember is this, and this is something that people have not picked up, the decline in Labour support since 2024, according to more than one mega-poll I've looked at, has occurred disproportionately in seats that Labour won in 2024

"If you look at the pattern of the decline in Labour support in the local elections, it was heaviest in places where they were previously strongest."

The most recent YouGov polling has Reform UK and Labour both on 23 per cent of the vote and the Conservatives close behind on 20 per cent, a marked difference from Reform's biggest ever poll lead, which came in an Ipsos poll in September 2025, when they hit 34 per cent vote share, 12 points ahead of Labour.

He continued: "That, of course, is what happened to the Conservative Party in 2024 and why they ended up with only (about) 120 seats

"It’s that pattern that makes it possible for Reform, even if they're not terribly far ahead of Labour, to still do perfectly well in terms of seats."

Despite this, Reform UK has taken a major hit in the polls since Mr Burnham entered Downing Street as the party remains mired in scandals.

Nr Farage faces ongoing questions about the party's finances, which overshadowed its annual conference in Birmingham last week following an undercover investigation broadcast on Channel 4 News.

Detectives from the Metropolitan Police are investigating after the report showed senior Reform UK figures appearing to discuss how to disguise donations from foreign sources.

Reform UK denies any wrongdoing and has said it will co-operate fully with the probe.

Mr Farage’s long-time aide Dan Jukes, who also denies wrongdoing, and head of policy James Orr have been suspended pending an internal investigation into the allegations.

Speaking about recent polling, Sir John said: "The numbers are not there [for Labour] and you're going to sacrifice an awful lot of your MPs."

He also warned Labour MPs had embraced Mr Burnham as their new leader this summer "in the belief that he would succeed in enabling them to continue their parliamentary careers".

Sir John added even coming as PM in this late in the Parliament Mr Burnham has still “got three years."

The polling guru continued: "He's been dying to do it for years. Holding an election now means risking three years to gain two. It's a bad deal."

Reacting to Sir John's analysis, a Reform UK spokesman said: "Sir John Curtice is right about one thing. Labour is terrified.

"We’d be delighted if Andy Burnham called an election. But he won't because he knows Reform would win."