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Voters deserting Starmer’s party after Labour decisions on winter fuel, farmers' death duties, massive tax hikes, Chagos surrender and now the cancelling of elections in nine councils
Labour would lose 163 seats- 40 per cent of its representation in Westminster- in a catastrophic wipeout, a sophisticated poll-aggregating map has revealed.
The projection would see Labour’s majority decimated with Starmer’s party falling 78 seats short of the magic 321 required to rule without entering a coalition.
It would mean the socialist party would have to enter a power sharing alliance with the Liberal Democrats and the SNP who are projected to win 71 and 42 seats (down one and up 33) respectively.
The Nowcast model, which aggregates recent UK wide polling and weights it for recency and historic pollster accuracy, shows the Conservatives winning 137 seats, up 16.
Most Labour losses would be inflicted by a rampant Reform UK who would gain 114 seats (up 109) according to the model.
The two right wing parties would win 251 seats between them, well short of the required number to form a coalition (a highly unlikely preposition anyway).
EXPLORE: Labour's projected losses across Britain - is yours one?
The map reveals there would be several high-profile Labour casualties if an election was held tomorrow.
Cabinet ministers Angela Rayner (Deputy PM), Wes Streeting (Health Secretary), John Healey (Defence Secretary), Yvette Cooper (Home Secretary) and Bridget Phillipson (Education Secretary) are all projected to be unseated.
Streeting’s Ilford North seat would be snatched by an independent candidate, while Healey’s Rawmarsh and Conisbrough would go to Reform.
Reform would also take Cooper’s Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley constituency, Rayner’s Ashton-under-Lyme and Phillipson’s Houghton and Sunderland South patch.
Badenoch’s Conservatives would also be caught in the Reform tidal wave. Big beasts Richard Holden (Shadow Paymaster General), Victoria Atkins (Shadow Defra Secretary) and James Cleverly (former Home Secretary) would all be usurped by Reform.
Big beasts currently projected to lose their seats
The model comes as a fresh blow to an increasingly under pressure Starmer whose unpopularity is plumbing new depths every week.
His party’s decisions to remove the winter fuel payment for millions of pensioners, slap farmers with death duties, surrender the Chagos Islands and raise taxes by £40billion have all been met with fury.
Just this week, Starmer has been dogged by controversy over his decision to meet a voice coach in person in December 2020 when the nation was in severe Covid lockdown.
Add to that the Chagos Island 'fiasco’, reported to be costing £18billion to British taxpayers, and the news council elections will be cancelled in nine authorities this May, despite all nine raising tax by hundreds of pounds.
The slew of bad headlines for Starmer has been broadly reflected in recent UK wide polling.
On Monday, highly respected pollsters YouGov put Reform at 25 per cent (+2) with Labour second 24 per cent (-3) and the Conservatives third with 21 per cent (-1).
It was the first national poll by an organisation other than FindOutNow that gave Reform a national lead.
FindOutNow has repeatedly given Reform higher poll ratings than any other polling company. It gave Reform a four-point lead with Farage’s party polling 27 per cent compared to Labour’s 23 per cent last week.
Reacting, a Reform UK spokesman said: "It’s no surprise we’re polling six points ahead of the Tories.
“The British people have been let down by the empty promises and failures of both Labour and the Conservatives. Fourteen years of Conservative rule have left the country poorer, worsened illegal immigration, and deepened divisions.
"Britons are tired of a two-party system where party politics and self-interest come before the needs of the people. Reform UK is breaking this cycle, standing for small businesses, farming families, lower taxes, prosperity, and British freedoms.
“Our remarkable transformation into a professional, organised, and election-winning force reflects this mission. With over 185,000 members, polling above 27% nationally, and with significant by-election successes, Reform UK is the party of real change.
“Our growing support is a clear reminder: the British people demand a government that works for them, not against them."
Liam Byrne / Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North / RFM GAIN
Lee Pitcher / Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme / RFM GAIN
Yvette Cooper / Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley / RFM GAIN
Luke Myer / Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland / CON GAIN
Bridget Phillipson / Houghton and Sunderland South / RFM GAIN
Martin McCluskey / Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West / SNP GAIN
