Labour would lose 128 seats and its majority if election held tomorrow
Reform UK would win 81 seats if an election was held tomorrow while Labour would lose 128 seats, a sophisticated poll aggregating model has found.
The Nowcast Model, which is based on recent GB wide polling, is weighted for recency as well as historic pollster accuracy.
It found Nigel Farage’s party would soak up 22.7 per cent of the national vote, just 0.3 per cent behind the Conservatives.
Badenoch’s party would gain 22 seats in a moderate comeback, while the SNP would triumph in Scotland with 26 seats gained.
The result would see Reform UK sail past the Liberal Democrats current seat haul of 72 after Ed Davey’s party enjoyed excellent results in July 2024.
Despite Reform’s claims to be the official opposition, the model leaves the party some 60 seats adrift of the Conservatives.
Yet with Labour’s majority reduced so heavily, no party would have enough seats to form a government, meaning a coalition would have to form.
This would most likely be a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition as their combined seat haul totals 354.
A Reform/Conservative coalition, as unlikely as that is to form, would only have 224 seats.
It comes as economic turmoil continues to dog the Labour government with Prime Minister Keir Starmer forced to defend his Chancellor.
Reeves herself is also deeply unpopular for raising taxes by £40billion and increasing government borrowing, fiscal plans that now seem foolish as the economy stagnates.
Other decisions driving unpopularity are the resignation of Tulip Siddiq, Starmer’s anti-corruption minister, who was named in a high-profile corruption case involving her aunt, the ex-Bangladeshi dictator.
After Starmer’s repeated attacks on Sunak for Tory sleaze, Tulip’s resignation is a major blow.
Also rumbling on in the background is the chaotic surrender of the Chagos Islands, rumoured to cost £9billion to British taxpayers.
These events all come after Labour got off to a terrible start in government, enacting unpopular decisions like stripping winter fuel payments, slapping farmers with inheritance tax and denying WASPI women compensation.
High profile Labour figures have seen their polling ratings drop in record time.
It appears the main benefactor is Nigel Farage. With the Tory party still rebuilding after its drubbing, Farage is hoovering up support with his party’s newcomer status proving tempting too thousands.
Here are the seats the Nowcast model has predicted Reform would win if an election was held tomorrow.
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North / 2024 MP: Liam Byrne
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme / 2024 MP: Lee Pitcher
Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley / 2024 MP: Yvette Cooper
