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Reform's Laila Cunningham would face off against the Labour candidate in 2028

Reform UK has overtaken the Conservatives to become the principal challenger to Labour in the race for London mayor, according to a striking new poll released today.

The Savanta survey, conducted for the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London, places Labour on 33 per cent, with Nigel Farage's party in second on 20 per cent, while the Tories trail in third on just 18 per cent, two points behind Reform.

Zack Polanski's Green Party sits on 14 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 10 per cent.

Savanta polled 1,036 London adults online between 10 and 17 August, with the findings pointing to a dramatic reshaping of the capital's political landscape ahead of the 2028 contest.

Should these figures hold, Reform's Laila Cunningham would face off against the Labour candidate in the final round under London's supplementary vote system, where voters whose preferred candidates are eliminated see their second preferences redistributed between the top two contenders.

No specific candidates were named in the polling, however Dr Eoghan Kelly, a Postdoctoral Researcher in British Politics at Queen Mary University of London, suggested the outcome would still favour Labour.

"On these numbers we would expect Labour to win quite comfortably on second preferences," he said.

Dr Kelly added: "Khan is significantly outperforming his own party's national leadership so it cannot be guaranteed that a different Labour candidate would have such a comfortable lead."

Nigel Farage revealed earlier this year that Ms Cunningham, a former Conservative councillor in Westminster, would head up the party's London branch and stand as Reform's candidate for City Hall, making her the first declared contender for the 2028 election.

Sir Sadiq Khan, who was elevated to the peerage by Sir Keir Starmer, has not yet committed to seeking a fourth term. He has indicated the decision will come next year.

"After discussing it with my wife and family, I'll make a decision next year. My tank is full, I'm still fizzing with ideas," he said.

Yet he acknowledged lingering doubts: "One thing that gnaws at me a bit is that I'm not sure it's good for one person to be in charge for too long. I'm not saying we're North Korea or Russia. The polls show I would win a fourth term."

Sir Sadiq said: "But I have to ask myself the question, as someone who loves this city: is it good for our city for someone to be in charge for 16 years? That's a genuine question I don't know the answer to yet."

On the Conservative side, former Home Secretary Sir James Cleverly, the MP for Braintree, is regarded as the leading contender to carry the Tory banner.

Party leader Kemi Badenoch has set out three essential qualities she wants in a mayoral candidate: expertise in business, a record on public order, and genuine life experience.

"I want us to have really bright people who get business, who get public order, who have life experience, not just spent their lives as campaigners like Sadiq Khan did," she said.

Sir James, a former London Assembly member who co-founded his own company and served two decades in the Territorial Army, appears well-suited to those criteria.

The poll found that 36 per cent of Londoners are satisfied with Sir Sadiq's performance as mayor, against 40 per cent who are dissatisfied — a net rating of minus four.

By contrast, approval of the national government stands at just 28 per cent, with 48 per cent unhappy, producing a net score of minus 20.

A separate YouGov survey last week showed 56 per cent of Londoners believe Sir Sadiq should step aside for a fresh Labour candidate. Potential successors include Brent East MP Dawn Butler, former Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Tooting MP Rosena Allin-Khan.

Lord Bailey, the Tory candidate in 2021, has urged Sir Sadiq to relinquish the mayoralty and focus on the House of Lords, arguing that London "needs a new set of ideas".