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The three main parties are now separated by a margin of error figure

Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives have overtaken Reform UK for the first time in 18 months, a shock new poll has revealed.

More in Common, which surveyed 3,250 British voters between August 28 and August 31, found Tory support stands at 23 per cent.

The Tories' total vote share is just one point ahead of Reform UK and three points behind Labour.

Despite Labour's overall support dropping to 26 per cent, a split on the right would likely ensure Andy Burnham returns to No10 provided the Prime Minister can convince the Liberal Democrats to back him.

Support for Sir Ed Davey's party remains almost completely unchanged since the 2024 General Election, with 11 per cent of voters intending to vote for the Liberal Democrats.

Meanwhile, the Green Party's support stands at nine per cent and Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain secured just four per cent of the vote.

However, More in Common's UK director Luke Tryl stressed the three main parties remain within the margin of error.

He said: "Obviously these are margin of error changes, and we should expect things to fluctuate over conference season.

"But this is the highest Conservative vote share since January of this year and Reform’s lowest in 18 months – though we have only been prompting Restore for two weeks, which will affect this."

More in Common, which last placed the Tories ahead of Reform UK in April 2025, also tracked the net approval ratings of Britain's party leaders.

The research found the Prime Minister's approval rating stands at 13 per cent, a significant improvement on Sir Keir Starmer's last recorded score of minus 42 per cent.

Meanwhile, Mrs Badenoch's rating is now at one per cent, putting the Leader of the Opposition narrowly ahead of Sir Ed on minus five per cent.

Mr Lowe's score is down at minus 12 per cent, with Mr Farage at minus 27 per cent and Zack Polanski at minus 28 per cent.

However, Mr Tryl added: "Looking at net approval can be misleading on its own, as both Davey – 55 per cent – and Lowe – 60 per cent – have over 50 per cent saying don't know or neither.

"So gross approvals are also below. The difference here is that order goes Burnham, Badenoch, and Farage on a gross good job."

More in Common's voting intention poll also poses a significant problem to the right if Mr Burnham opts to call a snap general election.

Nowcast's election forecast suggests Labour would likely hold onto 264 seats, leaving Mr Burnham as the leader of the largest party in the House of Commons.

The Tories would receive a modest boost since the 2024 General Election, picking up an extra few dozen seats to leave the Conservatives on 158.

Meanwhile, Reform UK would narrowly edge out the Liberal Democrats for third place, with Mr Farage ending up with just one more seat than Sir Ed on 72.

However, the Green Party would likely only receive a three-seat boost to take them to seven MPs, leaving Mr Lowe as Restore Britain's only MP in the House of Commons.

Despite Labour retaining its lead over the Tories and Reform UK, polling guru Sir John Curtice suggested Mr Burnham's bounce is already over.

Sir John told The Independent: "I believe that the 'Burnham bounce' came to an end after two weeks."

He added: "There is no rational basis for Labour to call an election now."

Sir John pointed out that Labour held an average lead over Reform UK of just one per cent throughout August.