As we head into July, the question on every seller's lips is simple: will prices hold, rise, or start to slip? My view, for what it's worth, is that we're heading for a slight fall before the market finds its feet again in the autumn: and confidence, not affordability, is the real culprit.
If you were expecting a thriving property market this summer, disappointment awaits you. In truth, right now, it is struggling to get into second gear.
First, the good news. Properties are selling, deals are being agreed, and demand for properties remains. But the flip side of the coin is plain to see: market momentum has slowed, and many would-be buyers are sitting tight for now.
Why? Affordability is a reason. But confidence is a bigger issue.
The property markets will benefit if Andy Burnham succeeds in delivering higher productivity
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With mortgage rates remaining far higher than buyers have been accustomed to over the last decade, and although it may feel like "the new normal", confidence has evaporated in the last year.
Base Rates were expected to have dropped once or twice by now (the war in Iran put a stop to that hope), and the fact that they have not has made movers painfully aware of world events impacting their finances.
Then, with the sustained period of instability, comes a new Prime Minister.
There is undoubtedly a "feel good" factor surrounding Andy Burnham, after a period in which the country seemed to aimlessly drift from one problem to the next. Hearing a future Prime Minister talk confidently about economic growth and investment is a welcome change.
His vision of a more devolved Britain, expanding power beyond Westminster and greater powers for regions and cities, is something different. It may even work. The UK has become too centralised.
By giving local leaders more trust and ability in decision-making, this could result in better long-term decisions, which certainly does sound optimistic.
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But property markets do not rely on optimism; they run on expectations. Whenever a new government or major new policy arrives, buyers, sellers, investors, and lenders all do the same thing: they wait.
Not because change is opposed, but because of what this change will actually lead to in terms of the unintended consequences. Taxes, housing policy, interest rates and inflation are all in the mix.
A stronger economy is desired by everybody. If Andy Burnham succeeds in delivering higher productivity, business investment, and more house building, the property markets will undoubtedly benefit.
The problem is that growth cannot be switched on overnight. Growth takes time. New infrastructure, council housing, regional investment rates, and public spending are all factors for consideration, and all require funding, while the country is already running a budget deficit.
The obvious question is whether businesses and taxpayers will be asked to shoulder the costs before the benefits begin to appear. If that means tax rises even further, confidence could remain subdued for far longer than ministers hope.
This summer has undoubtedly been a disappointment for the property market. Activity is ticking over, but nobody could describe the conditions as buoyant, and I’d expect a slight fall in prices until September.
Mortgage rates have remained far higher than buyers are accustomed to over the last decade
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There may be a sense of optimism and slightly increased confidence under Andy Burnham, and this will help the market.
If, however, ambitious promises are funded with higher taxes and more uncertainty, don't be surprised if today's flat market continues well into 2027. Things may well get worse before they get better.