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The plan would increase capacity to 150 million passengers per year
A third runway at Heathrow should be blocked, climate campaigners say, despite the expansion being described as "critical to national growth".
The planned expansion, which would involve moving the M25 motorway, would increase Heathrow’s capacity to 150 million passengers per year.
In July, Istanbul surpassed Heathrow as Europe’s busiest airport in July, prompting the west London airport to argue “the case for expansion has never been clearer”.
It said it was “operating at capacity” and that its expansion plans “will ensure the country gets the infrastructure it needs to stay competitive and will deliver all-important economic growth”.
But the £33billion scheme has been condemned by climate activists.
London mayor Lord Sadiq Khan has also vowed to "vehemently oppose these plans".
A new report, commissioned by environmental campaign group Friends of the Earth, found giving the runway the go-ahead would “overshoot” the UK’s legally binding climate targets.
The modelling, published by the University of Manchester’s Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, said the UK aviation industry is already forecast to exceed legally binding limits in the seventh carbon budget, part of the national plan to reach net zero by 2050.
That is before a third runway is built and in the wake of recent approved expansions at Gatwick, Stansted and Luton, the report said.
Research fellow Lois Pennington, from the Tyndall Centre, said: “Every aviation scenario the UK Government has published overshoots the carbon budget Parliament has legislated, before a third runway at Heathrow is even taken into account.
“Our analysis shows aviation cannot continue to grow if the sector is to make a proportionate contribution to meeting the UK’s carbon budgets."
Mike Childs, head of policy, science and research at Friends of the Earth, said: "After this summer of record-breaking heat and nearly 3,000 excess deaths, adding a third runway at Heathrow is the climate equivalent of pouring petrol on a raging wildfire.
“The evidence is clear: there is no route where expansion at Heathrow can be in line with our legally binding climate targets.
“The Government has a choice: commit to taking action on the climate seriously, reject Heathrow expansion and constrain excessive flying, or abandon the UK’s climate targets and future generations by giving the third runway the go-ahead.”
The public consultation on the Government’s Heathrow expansion national policy statement (HENPS) closed on Tuesday and the environmental group and Lord Khan are once again calling on the Government to reject the proposals.
When the consultation was launched in June, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said: “The Government considers that the development covered by the Heathrow expansion NPS is critical to national growth and therefore plans to designate expansion at Heathrow as critical national growth infrastructure.”
Following the publication of the new report, Lord Khan said he was “deeply concerned” about the potential adverse impacts of Heathrow expansion, citing possible effects to air quality, noise pollution, the environment and other transport networks.
He added: “The truth is the whole case for Heathrow expansion relies on outdated evidence that fails to consider the urgent challenges we face today.
“I will continue to vehemently oppose these plans as I seek to build a fairer, safer, greener, more prosperous London for everyone.”
Supporters of the expansion plans include the GMB, Britain's third largest union by members.
"Our members have a clear interest in the future of Heathrow and we, as an organisation, fully support the plans to expand Heathrow", it said.
"We stand firm in our belief that Heathrow’s expansion is an overall benefit to our members, the local area, Greater London and the wider UK."
