Andy Burnham should call an election before the Budget bursts his bubble

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London Conservatives leader Susan Hall says the Prime Minister's first Budget is likely to heap pressure on

On the assumption that I am the last person to whom Andy Burnham would turn for advice, I feel it is safe to point out that the self-styled King of the North should call a General Election as soon as possible.

Specifically, he should call it soon enough to avoid the Budget going ahead on 28th October because, once the Budget happens, we will be beyond the Burnham bounce. The Burnham balloon will have burst.

As alert readers will know, our new Prime Minister (or Mayor of Great Britain) has spent the time since his ascension spending money we don’t have whilst strongly hinting that the rich (for which read ‘everyone who works or owns anything’) are going to have to pay a little (‘a lot’) more.

It (by which I mean not only the political situation for Labour and Andy Burnham but also the state of the UK economy) gets worse. Labour’s current fiscal plans require deep cuts in the fourth and fifth years of this Parliamentary term.

The idea that this Labour Government, backed by this group of Labour MPs, would have the stomach to make such cuts in the run up to a 2029 General Election is wildly unrealistic.

Last year Labour MPs failed to even agree to slow the pace of benefits increases – a position that ultimately made Keir Starmer’s Premiership untenable. Is there any reason to think they are more prepared to back difficult but necessary decisions now?

Labour has changed an unpopular leader for a currently popular one, but that popularity will not last. Indeed, there is a case that Andy Burnham will become even less popular than Keir Starmer.

This is because people’s expectations for him are higher so when he fails to boost growth, cut unemployment, tame inflation, or reduce the cost of living then the public disappointment will be all the greater.

The decision that Andy Burnham and John Healey will have to make in the Budget is whether to please Labour MPs and the Labour base or to focus on reassuring the markets and pleasing the public. Whichever way they decide to jump will cause them significant problems.

The Chancellor could try to do the right thing. He could set out serious and realistic plans for holding down spending and making cuts – including to welfare. If he does so then many Labour MPs will refuse to support them and Andy Burnham’s authority will fall apart.

Or he could pander to his MPs and watch bond yields go through the roof as the markets collectively decide that the deficit will spiral and the country has another two-and-a-half years of Labour failing to do what should be done. For a Labour Prime Minister who is desperate to be liked these are not good choices.

That brings us back to the alternative option: calling a General Election soon enough that the Budget does not go ahead.

It is easy to see why this is a far better option than plodding on towards 2029 with the Micawber-esque hope that something will turn up.

Of course there is no guarantee that Andy Burnham would win an early election. If the British people were asked to give Labour five more years with their hands on the tiller of the UK economy, they could easily recoil at the thought.

Andy Burnham might hope to persuade the public that they needed to vote Labour to stop Reform from grabbing power, but I strongly suspect that the public would not fall for it.

In a General Election the leader’s favourability ratings and the party’s trust on the economy are of the utmost importance and that favours Kemi Badenoch and the Conservatives over Nigel Farage (whose favourability is lower than Keir Starmer’s) and Reform.

The nightmare for Burnham is that in a General Election campaign it could swiftly become clear that voting Conservative is the only way to kick out Labour and keep out Reform. An early election is Andy Burnham’s best chance but, fortunately, it could very easily go horribly wrong.