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GB News's Senior Political Commentator Nigel Nelson has previewed what is set to be a key day for the Prime Minister

Andy Burnham is a nice bloke, but there is going to be a time when he must start saying no.

Today might not be the day, though. As Parliament returns and Mr Burnham speaks from the despatch box for the first time as PM at around 3.30pm the message will be upbeat.

Do not expect the kind of doom-laden warnings Keir Starmer specialised in. This will be a speech full of hope and optimism.

So far Mr Burnham has given everyone what they wanted with a confetti of giveaways. Struggling pubs got a 20 per cent cut in business rates, bus travellers a fixed £2 fare, and households £45 off their energy bills.

Avanti West Coast train drivers received pay rises of 3.6 per cent despite inflation only running at 2.9 per cent. Whoopee for passengers travelling between London, Birmingham, Manchester and Glasgow. No strikes to disrupt their journeys.

Even the King will get nearly £100million later today to carry out the Royal Family’s official duties and maintain their palaces.

While this is lower than the previous Sovereign Grant, it is three times higher than it was when introduced 15 years ago. Prices have risen 58 per cent since then, but had the grant kept pace with inflation it would be only half what is about to be awarded.

There have been questions about how all this will be paid for but they have been brushed under the carpet for now.

The PM even made soothing noises to the people of the little Oxfordshire village of Piddington, understandably upset and outraged that more than 1,000 asylum seekers are to be housed on a disused military base nearby.

He did not answer the question of if not there, where? Anyone who found a migrant hotel on their doorstep complained bitterly, too, and half of them have now been closed.

That means 18,000 people have to be given a roof over their heads somewhere else and old military bases are the only answer until they can be removed or allowed to stay and work.

Mr Burnham also bowed to pressure not to free the killers of PC Andrew Harper by keeping anyone convicted of unlawful killing behind bars.

It will now be for Justice Secretary Alex Norris to tell us just how he is going to stop the prison system collapsing from this change in prisoner release rules.

The 5,900 jail places he hoped to free up are now down to 4,500, and there are already warnings that might not be enough. Only a few hundred will be initially released.

The solution to prison overcrowding is also a bit iffy. It is intended to be achieved by freeing those imprisoned indefinitely between 2005 - 2012 to protect public safety. If one of them goes on to commit a heinous crime, there will be a public outcry.

The PM says foreign national offenders will be deported more quickly to give prisons more space but that relies on their home countries playing ball. And squeezing prisoners into repurposed laundry rooms and broom cupboards may not cut it either.

No wonder Prison Officers’ Association chair Mark Fairhurst says nobody wants to be a prison officer any more.

And even if these schemes are a goer they cannot be achieved overnight so jails are still going to be chock-a-prison-block for a while yet. The 14,000 extra places being created will not come on stream until 2031

Mr Burnham’s cheery demeanour has given him a bounce in the polls. but the big test will be the Budget on 28th October.

It is likely to be the time when Mr Burnham will have to stop being a yes man.