Polling guru Sir John Curtice lays bare the shock data behind the supposed Burnham bounce
We should not be surprised if Andy Burnham enjoys something of a boost in the polls in the coming weeks. What, however, is clear is that, even though Labour’s standing has already improved somewhat in the wake of Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation, the new Prime Minister’s electoral inheritance is the weakest of anyone who has become Prime Minister in the middle of a parliament.
Immediately before that resignation, Labour were running at just 19 per cent in the polls – equal with the Conservatives and eight points behind Reform – a dire position in which the party has found itself ever since last autumn. But the announcement that the deeply unpopular incumbent was about to depart saw an average three-point uplift in Labour support in polls conducted immediately thereafter.
Some of that bounce has since disappeared – indeed according to some polls, almost entirely.
However, on average, those companies that have polled since the beginning of the month put Labour on 21 per cent, still a couple of points up on the pre-resignation position. Some of those who voted Labour in 2024 but had since fallen out of love with the party have now returned to the fold.
Meanwhile, with Reform support slipping in the wake of Nigel Farage’s decision to precipitate the Clacton by-election, Labour now finds itself just three points adrift of the party that has led the polls for more than a year.
Nevertheless, no new mid-term Prime Minister has gained the keys to No10 with his party on so low a poll rating.
The previous low, a Conservative rating of 23 per cent, was when Rishi Sunak took over from Liz Truss in October 2022.
Meanwhile, in July 2019, the position inherited by Boris Johnson when he succeeded Theresa May was not much better - the Conservatives then were on 25 per cent.
Mr Sunak, of course, proved unable to reverse his party’s fortunes. Mr Johnson, in contrast, managed six months later to win a general election that enabled him to ‘get Brexit done’.
Labour MPs are hoping Mr Burnham will emulate Mr Johnson’s subsequent success rather than Mr Sunak’s failure.
We certainly should not be surprised if he enjoys something of a boost in the polls in the next few weeks.
After all, of all the mid-term Prime Ministers during the last 30 years, only Liz Truss’s entry into Downing Street in September 2022 failed to give their party something of a boost in the polls – typically of the order of 3-4 points. Given how small Reform’s lead now is, that could be enough for Labour to take the lead.
Still, although Mr Burnham is much less unpopular than his predecessor, his personal rating is still slightly in negative territory.
Meanwhile, around one in five have yet to take a view about the country’s new leader. That may limit the scale of any further bounce Labour enjoys. Either way, Labour MPs’ belief Mr Burnham will prove more politically adept than his predecessor will now be put to the test.
